It looks as though we’re once again in hurricane watch mode, and this one’s a real humdinger.
Hurricane Ivan, which we’ve had in the back of our minds for a week and a half now, has developed into a Category 5 hurricane with freakishly high winds and an appetite for small island communities. Jamaica felt its fury early yesterday, and tonight Ivan seems poised to clip the end of Castro’s little cigar-shaped empire, making its Russian name more than a little ironic.
After its visit in the tropics, Ivan appears to be scheduled to hit the US gulf coast somewhere between New Orleans and Tallahassee, with the double-nuts center of its track aimed squarely at picturesque Gulf Shores, Alabama.
A year or two ago, my wife and I took a trip to the Gulf Shores area with a group of good friends. We rented a large condo on Orange Beach over a long holiday weekend … it was one of the most relaxing and happy times I can remember. I took the picture at left one evening as we sat on the deck, feeling the ocean breeze and the cool of the evening, watching the moonlight play in the waves just offshore.
One of the highlights of the trip was the afternoon we all descended on the famed Flora-Bama lounge, a collection of tin roofs, plywood, and beer signs that looks more like a refugee city than an establishment. It’s sort of a bar, sort of a restaurant, sort of a convenience store and beer outlet, and above all these a hangout in the true redneck spirit. It gets its name from the fact that it sits directly on the border between Florida and Alabama, along a busy stretch of highway, on a beautiful sandy beach. Two stories of pure ramshackle slumminess. We loved it.
If Ivan hits dead-center, or even a little to the west, the flora-bama will probably be history … at present, I think only a few well-placed wads of chewing gum are holding it together. It surprised me that the wind from passing trucks didn’t topple it. However, the place is still special because inside it is a reminder of a time that I will always remember.
Graffitti is a long-standing tradition at the flora-bama. Almost every square inch of every accessible wall, rafter, table, bench, and fixture in the place is covered with names, quips, and other writings.
Somewhere, on the second floor of that impromptu structure, high above one of the big plywood tables, up by the rafters that inexplicably support the roof, is an old tin Budweiser beer sign nailed to the wall. On that sign my wife wrote our names. To some that would be just a silly, juvenile gesture, but it meant the world to me, so much so that I took a picture. So much so that to this day, two years later, I’ve never forgotten that it’s there.
So much of life is fleeting. As songwriter Jon Vezner put it, “Those memories are just moments you hope will ever end / But they never stay, they just float away like ashes in the wind.” The only thing constant in life is change … things change, people change, and sometimes all we have are memories to remind us of the times that make life worth living. In the movie, “Groundhog Day”, Bill Murray’s character is vexed by the fact that he repeats the same day of his life, over and over, endlessly. I don’t blame him; it had all the hallmarks of a truly bad day. There are a couple of days in my own life that I would happily repeat for the rest of my life, and this was one of them.
OK, enough of my sentimental stupidity, back to hurricanes. I’ve decided that unless and until things get very ugly, I’m going to leave the updates in the capable hands of the authorities, and the Merman who by virtue of his nautical nature is a far better forecaster than I shall ever be. All my weather knowledge comes from being a pilot, so what do I know about surface weather? 🙂
In lieu of updates, I would like to provide everyone with a good catalog of links to fresh, up-to-the-minute information on the storm system. Listed below are the very best information resources I’m aware of on the web.
National Hurricane Center, TPC
This link takes you directly to the web site of the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida. Operated by NOAA and the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center tracks all tropical depressions that form in the hurricane spawning grounds in the tropics, and uses mathematical models to predict their behavior, strength, and track. Their predictions are among the most accurate available.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA’s home page is the best place to look for good, clear satellite images of the storm, both in visible light and infra-red. There is also some storm surge and wind speed prediction information here that can be of help in anticipating the storm’s likely effects.
National Weather Service NEXRAD
This link takes you to the national mosaic of National Weather Service NEXRAD (NEXt generation RADar) products. This is the most up-to-date radar information available on the web … it’s generally only a few seconds behind the radar itself and is very nearly a live image. Clicking on the mosaic will take you to the nearest NEXRAD site to the place where you clicked, and from that point you can navigate between sites easily to get a good image.
There are three types of images here. The long- and short-range “Base Reflectivity” pictures are plots of a single radar sweep at a low angle to the horizon (under storm conditions, typically 0.5 degrees.) This gives a good general overview of the position, shape, and distribution of the heavier precipitation in the storm, and is the best indicator of conditions at the surface. The long- and short-range “Composite Reflectivity” pictures consist of several radar sweeps, made at gradually increasing beam elevations from 0.5 to 5 or more degrees above the horizon. This allows the radar to pick up the higher-altitude components of the storm and is the best view for gauging the true size and strength of a storm and its movement as a whole. Finally, the “Rainfall” pictures are the output of an algorithm that determines how much rain has fallen in the radar’s coverage area, based on density of precip returns on the radar and how long they persisted. There are one-hour and “storm total” pictures available.
NEXRAD, a doppler radar system, does also provide a “Storm Radial Velocity” product, which actually gauges movement of the precipitation in the air, relative to the direction of the radar beam. Using computer analysis, the NEXRAD system can use this data to detect mesocyclones (rotating storm systems that are the precursors to tornadoes). However, the raw radial velocity picture is almost impossible for an untrained eye to make sense of, so it isn’t provided on the web interface. You CAN find it at…
Intellicast
This link takes you to Intellicast, which is a web interface to the products of WSI, a commercial weather information company that has been serving the aviation community for two decades. In my opinion, WSI is shooting itself in the foot by providing this data free of charge … the commercial WSI services really don’t offer a great deal more than this web site does!
The link takes you directly to the tropical storm page … click the “Available” link on each storm for its predicted track, and from there you’ll find tabs at the top to get you to any imagery you might want. Under the RADAR tab, at the very bottom, is the Storm (SRM) Radial Velicity NEXRAD product.
GOES Floater
This is a handy direct link to the NOAA “floater” image. The GOES satellite has one visible-light imaging system that is kept in reserve for tropical storm situations. That camera is kept zoomed and focused on the current tropical system of interest, which means that for the next week it’ll be watching Ivan rather closely.
Ivan looks to be another storm that might affect Atlanta if things continue apace. Rest assured that even though I’m not flooding the web with updates, I’m watching this thing as closely as anyone.